Yes, Turbulence Is Getting Worse. No, You're Not in Danger.
Is turbulence really getting worse? A 27-year captain on why severe turbulence is up 55%, why flying is safer than ever, and what nervous flyers need to know.
Pilot Nick — 6 min read
Last winter I was deadheading home that’s airline-speak for flying as a passenger so I can pick up my next trip the following morning and the woman seated beside me did something I’d never quite seen on a flight before. She was reading an article. And about halfway through it, she started to cry.
I’d taken the aisle, the way I always do on positioning flights. She was at the window. Mid-forties, neat coat across her lap, no carry-on bag, the kind of passenger who flies because she has to, not because she enjoys it.
I’d been half-watching her since boarding. The white knuckles on the armrest. The slow, deliberate breathing. When the boarding door thumped shut she let out a small, private exhale that I recognized, the one nervous flyers make when they accept there’s no longer an option to walk back up the jet bridge.
About ten minutes into the climb, she pulled out her phone, started reading, and her eyes filled.
“Are you alright?” I asked, the way you do.
She turned the screen toward me. One of those splashy headlines about climate change and turbulence half doom, half clickbait.
“Is it true?” she said. “Not in my head. For real. The sky is actually getting rougher?”
I told her the truth.
Yes. It is and I will explain you why
The part most passengers, and most aviation journalists, never get to hear is what happens up front. The three things every captain does before pushback when turbulence is forecast. The iPad app already in every cockpit that’s reportedly 90% accurate versus roughly 50% for the traditional forecast. The laser system that already gives pilots 70 seconds of warning before clear-air turbulence hits, but isn’t on a single airliner yet. And the honest answer to the question nervous flyers are afraid to ask out loud: should I fly less?
If you fly more than twice a year, this is the part of the story you’ll want to know.
