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Sunset Thunder's avatar

What are the real statistics on the number or percentage of checked bags that are lost? The scare tactics of “influencers” of “fly carry-on only because your checked bags will be lost” is the biggest bullshine in travel advice.

Pilot Nick 👨🏻‍✈️'s avatar

Fair challenge, and the data backs you up.

SITA's 2026 Baggage IT Insights report: 4.9 mishandled bags per 1,000 passengers globally about half a percent, down 23% on the year and now better than pre-pandemic. And crucially, "mishandled" ≠ "lost." Roughly 74% are delayed and returned, 18% damaged, and only ~8% genuinely lost or stolen. That puts your odds of permanently losing a checked bag at somewhere near 1 in 2,500.

The real risk factor isn't the act of checking, it's the connection. Transfers accounted for 39% of all mishandling last year. Nonstop with a checked bag is a very different bet than a 45-minute transfer through a mega-hub. Add an AirTag and you've closed most of the remaining gap.

Might be worth a full post. Adding it to the list.

Errata in México's avatar

“Track the airplane, not just the flight.”

This has helped me see if my wife (she flies far more than I do) is likely to be delayed, eight hours before her flight.

Question: I also look at where the aircraft is going next and if it’s an evening flight, where it will spend the night. And I look to see if the aircraft route is the same day after day, rather than a hodgepodge. I recently passed on a flight whose number and time bounced all over the place. Am I overthinking this?

The Innovation Attorney's avatar

#9. Also known as “If you have time spare, go by air….”