What are the real statistics on the number or percentage of checked bags that are lost? The scare tactics of “influencers” of “fly carry-on only because your checked bags will be lost” is the biggest bullshine in travel advice.
SITA's 2026 Baggage IT Insights report: 4.9 mishandled bags per 1,000 passengers globally about half a percent, down 23% on the year and now better than pre-pandemic. And crucially, "mishandled" ≠ "lost." Roughly 74% are delayed and returned, 18% damaged, and only ~8% genuinely lost or stolen. That puts your odds of permanently losing a checked bag at somewhere near 1 in 2,500.
The real risk factor isn't the act of checking, it's the connection. Transfers accounted for 39% of all mishandling last year. Nonstop with a checked bag is a very different bet than a 45-minute transfer through a mega-hub. Add an AirTag and you've closed most of the remaining gap.
Might be worth a full post. Adding it to the list.
This has helped me see if my wife (she flies far more than I do) is likely to be delayed, eight hours before her flight.
Question: I also look at where the aircraft is going next and if it’s an evening flight, where it will spend the night. And I look to see if the aircraft route is the same day after day, rather than a hodgepodge. I recently passed on a flight whose number and time bounced all over the place. Am I overthinking this?
What are the real statistics on the number or percentage of checked bags that are lost? The scare tactics of “influencers” of “fly carry-on only because your checked bags will be lost” is the biggest bullshine in travel advice.
Fair challenge, and the data backs you up.
SITA's 2026 Baggage IT Insights report: 4.9 mishandled bags per 1,000 passengers globally about half a percent, down 23% on the year and now better than pre-pandemic. And crucially, "mishandled" ≠ "lost." Roughly 74% are delayed and returned, 18% damaged, and only ~8% genuinely lost or stolen. That puts your odds of permanently losing a checked bag at somewhere near 1 in 2,500.
The real risk factor isn't the act of checking, it's the connection. Transfers accounted for 39% of all mishandling last year. Nonstop with a checked bag is a very different bet than a 45-minute transfer through a mega-hub. Add an AirTag and you've closed most of the remaining gap.
Might be worth a full post. Adding it to the list.
“Track the airplane, not just the flight.”
This has helped me see if my wife (she flies far more than I do) is likely to be delayed, eight hours before her flight.
Question: I also look at where the aircraft is going next and if it’s an evening flight, where it will spend the night. And I look to see if the aircraft route is the same day after day, rather than a hodgepodge. I recently passed on a flight whose number and time bounced all over the place. Am I overthinking this?
#9. Also known as “If you have time spare, go by air….”